The calendar reads March 31. Not too long ago, this date was the scheduled start to the Major League Baseball season. That was prior to a 99-day lockout disrupted the offseason, then forced a late start to Spring Training, and subsequently, a delayed start to the season. The season will now commence on April 7, in one more week.
Alas, it will come eventually.
But given so many of us baseball fans wish Opening Day was here, I thought the least I could do would be to give fellow Mariners fans an idea of what their team would’ve looked like taking the field today in their home opener against the Detroit Tigers.
Let’s start with the 28-man roster (though, with a normal Spring Training it would have stayed at the regular 26-man roster allowance, nevermind that for this exercise):
Outfielders (5):
Billy Hamilton
Mitch Haniger
Jarred Kelenic
Julio Rodriguez
Jesse Winker
This first section of the roster has some intriguing developments. For one, the 21-year-old Rodriguez makes his MLB debut by breaking camp with the big club after just 46 games and 204 plate appearances at the Double-A level, zero Triple-A time. That’s a major accomplishment in normal circumstances, let alone to do it at the age of 21. Make no mistake, however, Rodriguez is ready for this opportunity. He has dominated at every turn. In those 46 games at Double-A in 2021, Rodriguez posted a 1.021 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) which would’ve led all hitters in the Texas League by .170 pts had he qualified. The reason he didn’t qualify, is he spent approximately a month of his season away from the minor leagues while competing for his home country Dominican Republic in its pursuit of an Olympic gold medal. Competing against some of the world’s best, Rodriguez was the best hitter in a Dominican lineup which featured former MLB stars Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista as he hit .417/.625/.444 in 25 plate appearances while in Tokyo (his qualifying numbers are not listed but were also very good).
Point is, he’s ready and now he gets a chance to begin his major-league career.
The other name to note here is Hamilton. Hamilton was acquired in the middle of Spring Training when he was signed to a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training. The veteran outfielder brings speed, elite base-running and defense in center field, something the Mariners can use with last year’s starting center-fielder Kyle Lewis sidelined (knee).
Hamilton, 31, spent 2021 with the Chicago White Sox. He appeared in 71 games, garnered 135 plate appearances and hit .220 with a .242 on-base percentage and .620 OPS. He stole nine bases in nine attempts and played outstanding defense. He brings an elite center-field glove and the ability to grab a key bag in late in games to this Mariners roster.
Infielders (6)
J.P. Crawford SS
Ty France 1B
Adam Frazier 2B
Dylan Moore util.
Eugenio Suarez 3B
Abraham Toro util.
No real surprise with the six infielders that will make the trip to Minnesota in seven days’ time. Suarez is the major trade acquisition who steps into the vacant third base position after the departure of 10-year Mariners star Kyle Seager. Watch for him to improve upon his sour 2021 where he struggled to hit .198. The switch-hitter Toro is the important do-it-all utility option here. He should get close to everyday at-bats as he platoons between second, third base, dh and some first base and left field.
Up the middle, the Mariners project to be strong with Crawford and Frazier leading the way at shortstop and second base respectively. The hope is that Crawford builds off of his 2021 campaign which saw him finish second in the American League (to leader Carlos Correa) with 14 defensive runs saved. Crawford was also much better at the plate, hitting .273/.338/.376 for a .715 OPS and 102 OPS+ (100 is league average). It would be optimum for Crawford to continue to ascend offensively. An improvement to his on-base to, say, .370 and slugging percentage to .410 by hitting a few more balls into the gap for doubles would make Crawford more of an elite all-around shortstop, while making the Mariners’ front office consider extending Crawford before he hits free agency at the end of the 2024 season.
Catchers (3)
Cal Raleigh
Tom Murphy
Luis Torrens
My guess is the team opts to keep Torrens, a capable lefty-masher but defensive liability at the backstop over a 10th reliever. Raleigh, a switch-hitting catcher, is set for a sophomore jump after struggling over a small sample of 47 games in 2021. It would be stupid to leave him off the roster in my opinion.
Rotation (5)
Robbie Ray LHP
Logan Gilbert RHP
Marco Gonzales LHP
Chris Flexen RHP
Matt Brash RHP
Ray is the featured addition, coming over from the Toronto Blue Jays after a stellar 2021 campaign which saw the left-hander win the AL Cy Young award by posting a 2.48 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 193.1 IP in the AL East (tough opponents in a plethora of hitters’ parks). He had a strikeout to walk rate of 248 to 52, 11.5 K/9, a 152 ERA+ (100 is league average) and 6.7 WAR.
There is also the addition of rookie Brash to keep an eye on as well as the development of Gilbert in his sophomore season. Brash, 23, will make his ML debut after splitting 2021 between high-A Everett and Double-A Arkansas. Over 97.1 IP (which gives him the edge over fellow fifth starter challenger George Kirby who only threw 67.2 innings in ’21), Brash pitched to a 2.31 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in which he yielded 25 earned runs, 61 hits, a .180 opponent’s average and struck out 142, walking 52 (including four hit batters).
Bullpen (9)
Diego Castillo RHP
Ken Giles RHP
Anthony Misiewicz LHP
Andres Munoz RHP
Yohan Ramirez RHP
Sergio Romo RHP
Paul Sewald RHP
Drew Steckenrider RHP
Erik Swanson RHP
A 9-man relief core breaks camp thanks to MLB increasing rosters to 28 for the month of April to help managers protect pitchers after a shortened Spring Training. It’s a load of crap if you ask me, they already increased rosters to 26 (up from the long held usual of 25) a season ago for this very reason and now they are giving managers two more spots as if eight relievers weren’t enough.
For those who aren’t aware of the lack of importance of an eighth arm, let alone a ninth and 10th, just look at this table of the Mariners bullpen use for March/April last season when the team carried six starters and eight relievers.
Ignore James Paxton who started one game, pitched all of one inning before leaving with an injured elbow that would require another Tommy John surgery. Also ignore Swanson and Robert Dugger who came up for one game and then would be sent down. You will see that the eighth most used reliever, Kenyan Middleton, pitched to 35 different hitters over eight games for 8.2 innings. If you go to the ninth most used, it’s Dugger who pitched to seven hitters. Imagine keeping a 10th reliever then. How often will that pitcher be used? It’s absurd.
The Mariners bullpen was the best in the American League last season which helped the team stay in games late, winning more than 30 one-run contests en route to a 90-win season. Will it be able to repeat that performance in 2022? It adds the experienced Giles, hard-throwing Munoz and now Romo on a 1-year, $2 million contract after losing Casey Sadler for the season to shoulder surgery. It’s a tough blow to be sure as Sadler led the team with a dominant 0.67 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over 40.1 IP.
Giles, Castillo and Sewald should get the majority of the save situations as Servais will likely wait until May or June to settle on his main closer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this bullpen be just as good in close games as 2021, even if the raw numbers are somewhat worse than 2021.
Another arm, Justus Sheffield, who doesn’t make the cut here is ticketed for Triple-A Tacoma where he can be stretched out as a starter, pitching every fifth day. Better to leave him there, ready to help at a moment’s notice if the worst were to happen rather than have him wasting away in the bullpen for a full month, getting five to six innings at most over two outings, if that.
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