The MLB trade deadline. It can be the source of riches for smart franchises whose baseball operations departments fly above the rest in talent evaluation by obtaining the life-giving nutrients of top prospects and other under-the-radar talent while also being the bane of other franchises’ very existence.
Another trade deadline is fast approaching. August 2nd is the scheduled date for the year 2022 which necessitates all clubs make their final non-waiver trades by that date. It’s a time when all 30 clubs must decide where they are in the vast picture of the hunt for the postseason. The Seattle Mariners are no different.
Sitting at 41-42 as they head into a critical 4-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays (43-37) at home, the Mariners are surging. Seattle has won 12 of its last 15 games despite critical injuries to first baseman Ty France, the club’s leading hitter with a .316/.390/.476 slash line good enough for a team-leading 153 ops+, to outfielder Mitch Haniger who has been held to just eight games thanks to a high ankle sprain and designated hitter Kyle Lewis who has battled both his ailing right knee and a concussion, not to mention suspensions following the brawl in Anaheim.
Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto will no doubt be pressed to put the finishing touches on a roster that is clearly positioned in the top half of the American League, currently in second place in the AL West division behind the perennially dominant Houston Astros. Even as the Mariners have been on a 12-3 tear over the last two weeks, they have actually lost ground to the Astros who have gone 13-2 in the same span.
The Mariners certainly have their weaknesses. The designated hitter position has been a black hole all season. The purpose of the position is to field a player more capable of hitting than the pitcher, but the Mariners may just as well have stuck the pitcher in there for the first 70 games and received the same performance. The likes of Abraham Toro, Luis Torrens, Mike Ford, Justin Upton and Lewis combined to hit .190/.289/.301/.590. There’s also the lack of production from second base where Adam Frazier has drawn the majority of starts. Frazier who was acquired during the offseason via trade with the San Diego Padres is hitting just .219/.287/.290/.577 over his first 81 games with the club. Outfielder Jesse Winker, also acquired through trade just prior to commencing Spring Training in mid-March, has likewise underperformed in the first half. Winker has hit .226/.341/.337/.678 in 79 games.
On the pitching side, things have mostly been good. In fact, after the first 50 or so games of playing with an inconsistent bullpen, even that element of the Mariners team has improved. Andres Munoz, 23, has been lights out over his last 16 appearances, pitching 18.1 innings and allowing 10 hits, three earned runs, three walks while striking out 27 batters. That’s good for a 1.47 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He hasn’t been the only bright spot. Paul Sewald has posted a 2.64 ERA in 30.2 innings with a 0.71 WHIP. Erik Swanson has a 0.79 ERA in 22.2 innings. Penn Murfee, a rookie with a sidearm delivery, has a 1.99 ERA in 32.1 innings. And then there’s Diego Castillo, acquired from Tampa Bay at last year’s deadline. Castillo who is making $2.15m in his first year of arbitration has posted a 4.66 ERA in 29 innings with a 3.05 FIP. He’s dominated since a run of bad outings in early May. The aforementioned high leverage arms have been supplemented by veteran Ken Giles, lefty Ryan Borucki, youngster Matt Festa and veteran Tommy Milone now that the ineffective Sergio Romo, Drew Steckenrider, Anthony Misiewicz and Yohan Ramirez were jettisoned.
The rotation has been mostly outstanding over the first half. For one thing, there hasn’t been a single missed start from any of the members of the rotation, the only reason seven pitchers have made starts is the swap of Matt Brash in favor of George Kirby and the use of an opener for the doubleheader game. The group of Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen and Kirby recently went 24 straight games without allowing more than three runs in a start, a franchise record. There unfortunately is the possibility that Kirby, a rookie, will need to be shutdown in late August or early September as he exceeds an innings limit pre-imposed at the beginning of the season after pitching just 67 innings in the minors in 2021. Kirby has thrown 84.1 innings this year between AA and the majors and is unlikely to surpass 125, leaving him with room for potentially another 40 innings. That is fast approaching at six innings a start. Hopefully the team shows some flexibility with that 125 innings amount, and allows Kirby to go to 150. I think 100 innings should always be a base line for any pitcher pitching a full professional season. So if you go off that rather than the 67 innings he pitched last year, you are able to push him a little further. Meanwhile, rest between starts is more important than just looking at the innings total. If they can skip Kirby’s turn, push him back on occasion, then you give him 6-10 days rest between outings and that helps limit the stress on his arm.
All of that to say the Mariners could look at acquiring another starting pitcher, but don’t necessarily need one. Yes, the offense has been a weakness in the first half, but that area too is getting fortified. The team recently brought over first base/dh Carlos Santana, 36, from the Kansas City Royals. Santana has played first base while France has been on the injured list with a flexor strain in his elbow. When France returns, the on-base machine that Santana is can find time in the DH slot. Also on the mend are outfielders Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis. Both of those bats will likely join the lineup right after the All-Star Break. At bats for Haniger and Lewis can come in right field where Taylor Trammell recently went down with a hamstring injury, left field where Winker has struggled and DH in a platoon with Santana. Lewis is unable to play everyday anyway given his balky knee.
Meanwhile, the Mariners seem to have in-house replacement options for Frazier in the versatile Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty and Toro. Toro has quietly improved his play over his last nine games, hitting .286/.350/.457/.807 with five RBI. Small sample, sure, but he hasn’t been that good over any small sample this year so it’s encouraging. Then there’s Moore who is up to a 106 ops+ over 146 plate appearances this year, while Haggerty has added a 139 ops+ over 35 PAs.
Dipoto can add around the edges. While Munoz, Sewald and Castillo have all been great of late, it wouldn’t hurt (depending on what the club has to give up I guess) to add a high-leverage bullpen arm. A backup catcher with more ability than Torrens (injured) and Andrew Knapp would help give Raleigh a well-needed break. But unless Haniger and Lewis meet new complications in their return (the team should have two weeks to evaluate both in major-league games prior to the deadline), my thought is the bats are here. Santana is going to prove to be a good addition. Lewis and Haniger are both proven. Haggerty, Moore and Toro are coming around and provide great depth off the bench.
This team is being propelled by Julio Rodriguez, Raleigh, France, Eugenio Suarez and J.P. Crawford. The added offense that can come from Lewis, Santana, Haniger and a better Winker will be all the bats you need.
Pitching wise, this club is sound. And what’s out there? An injured Frankie Montas? Luis Castillo? The lack of options and the plethora of contenders looking for pitching means it’s a sellers market and those two will command quite the haul. I’d stay away. Turn instead, to the in-house options of AA right-hander Taylor Dollard. He has been sensational for Arkansas this year in posting a 1.38 ERA in 78.1 innings.
Too often teams wind up regretting the moves they make at the deadline to acquire that “one more arm” or “needed bat.” The Mariners themselves benefitted greatly two years ago when they sold a package built around utility catcher Austin Nola with a host of cheap relievers like Dan Altavilla for France, Trammell, Torrens and Munoz. You think the Padres wish they would have held off on that deal? France and Munoz alone would be huge catalysts for their current club.
Sometimes trades are necessitated because of the 40-man roster and the need to protect players from the rule-5 draft. That said, it’s always better to have a deep, talented organization. Remember, every club has the 40-man roster restriction. So if they bring on one of your talented players, they have to remove someone to make room. So fill out your 40-man with as much talent as you possibly can. And hope come rule-5 draft time, the other organizations around the league just don’t have enough roster space to take all of your good young players.
If Dipoto largely stands pat with no big moves save for a few upgrades on the periphery of the 26-man roster, I will be happy. I think this club as constituted is capable of reaching the postseason, of winning a playoff series and — given its 6-6 record vs Houston this year — potentially doing more than that.
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